A Needed Shift of Focus

By Kevin Anil Varghese

Thomas Jefferson once said, “Peace, commerce and honest friendship with all nations; entangling alliances with none”. The third, and one among the most influential presidents of the United States, was referring to the idea of a perfect foreign policy as per him, that the country should adopt for progress and prosperity, without getting too attached to others. Much is being discussed at the present on how things have changed between nations since this was said. Jefferson may probably have a mild shock seeing the state of affairs today. Whether how matters are in the present is good or bad, is a discussion for another day. The United States of America, is at a pivotal position today as far as global foreign policy is concerned. It is common knowledge that an involvement of the US in almost all major international blocs and organisations of similar manner is motivated by the need of Washington to make sure that domestic interests are protected while foreign connections are kept amiable at all times. And hence, threats to the economy are kept at bay.

Some perceive USA’s policies as friendly and helping. While some others, strongly believe that the US is trying to strong-arm the others into arriving at decisions that are indirectly or directly aimed at benefiting the US, even when they (USA) proclaim it is in the best interests of the one they are trying to help. Then there are some others, who take a neutral stance, keeping a safe distance from all the action to avoid much attention. The second kind, are the ones that the US has been wary about, of course. The policies of the US towards hostile counterparts has been largely firm and strict in terms of trade and support, both direct and indirect. And neither does the US try to hide their stance on a global stage. The manner of conveying their message of unhappiness towards such nations, are visible through their imposition of sanctions (using the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or simply — CAATSA), cutting of trade ties and not supporting other countries that support America’s direct competitors, so to say. Speaking of adversaries, presently the USA’s attention has been largely focused towards one country. No, it is not Russia, but a country with a similar political philosophy, but a very different approach — China. And hence, the spotlight is now in the Indo-Pacific. A region of increasing importance due to its strategic geo-political placement, and its part in moving global trade and economy. For long, the US and China had many silent but less intense tiffs in the realm of trade and economy. It was quite predictable right from the onset of the 2000s, that China was going to emerge as a major player in the game not far from then. The growth of China as the largest exporter of consumables and as a military power (with nuclear capacity), was almost at the blink of an eye.

The rising importance was duly acknowledged by the Trump administration and several measures and policies were constructed to better serve the purpose of building a stronger US presence in the region. An interesting fact, the Trump administration had changed the term for the region from Asia-Pacific (APAC) to Indo-Pacific. This clearly showed Trump’s interest in bringing forth the Indian subcontinent to the spotlight as an important ally to secure the United States’s and India’s common interests. Among many, the most notable point on which both the countries agreed to work on diligently is finding a solution the the rise of China and their growing influence among neighbouring and farther countries. As far as India is concerned, China is both a trade and military threat. While the US, has their interest in curbing the growth of China’s cheap exports sold through price dumping. This harms other competitors in the market, of which the US is a significant victim. Additionally, China’s overly ambitious military expeditions in the South China sea, has the US scrambling to see itself retain influence. The US’s intentions of seeing itself be an important presence in the Indo-Pacific was published through the ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy Report’ released by the US Department of Defence. On the 31st of December, 2018, the Trump administration passed the ‘Asia Reassurance Initiative Act’ (ARIA) — which authorised the government to spend USD $1.5 billion for a variety of programmes in East Asia and Southeast Asia, to develop ‘long term strategic vision and a comprehensive, multifaceted, and principled US policy for the Indo-Pacific region’. Following the US’s growing interest in the region, we have witnessed countries forming alliances and partnerships to better strengthen their position in the region. The Quad, is among the most notable blocs to come to the forefront in recent times. The motive of the group is to promote a form of good governance, and development for the region that is laid on the principles of openness, inclusiveness, and transparency. It aims to provide a robust network of systems to facilitate the movement of COVID vaccines, infrastructure, technology, and the likes. The prime objective is to help trade and economy flourish through the co-operation of the four nations. It also aims to keep a check on the activities of China, maintaining balance in the area.

The Indo-Pacific, is a region comprising of at least 38 countries, spanning over 44% of the world’s surface area. It is home to above 64% of the world’s population. This region contributes more than 62% towards global GDP. The Indo-Pacific houses countries that are at different stages of development, connected by a common stretch of the ocean. The economy in this area is highly diverse unlike many other. The strategic importance of this area in maritime, economic, and defence matters is evidently great. And due to this fact, most of the major economies of the world are trying to get a piece of the pie by establishing their presence. The US, under Trump had taken many a great initiatives to stress on Washington’s continued interest in the Indo-Pacific. Under Biden, it is not going to be any different and may only remain firm, if not develop. The Indo-Pacific region is set to grow at the rate of 5.7% in the year 2022 (IMF). Considering the kind of scattered growth rate figures of its members taken individually, a growth rate of 5.7% for the region as a whole is quite laudable. It should be relatively easier now for the reader to assume why the US wants to invest in the development of Indo-Pacific. By making an investment now, America is helping itself take a share of the good that will come in the near future. The Indo-pacific is flourishing in trade, progressing in economic development, and also turning into a major one-stop location for manufacturers. The US’s strong connections with countries like Japan, and Vietnam are notable developments. The bilateral trade between Vietnam and the US was worth US$ 77 billion in the year 2019. The imports from Vietnam into the US surged to 36% (ORF-US Engagement in the Indo-Pacific: An Assessment of the Trump Era). The US, during the Trump Administration’s stint at the white house between 2016 and 2020, created a very close relation with Japan. The leaders met each other 20 times, had 32 phone calls (sometimes two a week), and 5 golf rounds. This resulted in tightening security in the region with both the countries co-operating and working together. As seen, the major outcome of this very admirable dynamic between Shinzo Abe and Trump, was policy level interferences, and defence support. Japan increased the number of US-made F-35 fifth-generation stealth jets ordered, from 42, to 147; making Japan the largest international buyer of the jet. As for Australia, the relation between the US and itself was largely focused on security matters. As a result, the Trump Administration made sure that an Obama-era aim of having a 2500-man strong US marine presence in Australia was completed.

The US, through these friendships, seek not just a friendship, but a very strategic alliance as well. An alliance to watch and control the growth of China. China has applied for more patents than the US in the recent years, and has become a major tech leader — a title which the US retained for a long time. One of China’s largest markets is also undoubtedly the Indo Pacific region. China’s applications for patents had increased over 200-fold in the past 20 years. Huawei has been the forerunner in this sector for the past three years, taking the stage as the largest corporate patent filer for this period. The CEO of Huawei was held by the US authorities for certain allegations of using Huawei’s technologies to spy in on the US, which heightened tensions between the two nations. Through the strategic alliances that Washington creates, it is also ensuring the US a chance at levelling the playground by using the resources that its partner countries have to offer, like Japan, and India. The report ‘A Free And Open Indo-Pacific — Advancing A Shared Vision’ showed the Obama administration’s interest in not just remaining an Atlantic power, but also in becoming a ‘Pacific power’. It is not a mystery why the US shows such interest in this region given everything discussed above. A rise in the rate of expansion of Chinese businesses’ presence outside of China during the past 20 years has made many business tycoons in the United States concerned. A fall in exports from the US during these two decades, can in many ways be attributed to the rise of Chinese exports.

The final question that remains to be asked is, what will the current Biden administration do to tackle this hurdle and how. The Obama and Trump offices showed that the growth of China in the Indo-Pacific can and will eventually affect the fulfilment of a lot of American interests both in the region and globally. With China leading as the world’s largest supplier of consumables and tech products, it will take concentrated and clear decisions from the part of the US, along with partners to offset the dominance of China in this arena. So far, team Biden hasn’t shifted much from the policies of its predecessors in this regard. This particular problem has seen both the Democrats and the Republicans come to a common ground. It is only imperative that the current government will shift much more of their attention and resources at nullifying the looming threat. While all that is said, it is yet to see what kind of an impact whether good or bad, a continued trade war between China and the US will create on countries like India, Japan, Vietnam, and Singapore — all of who are in some ways connected to both the nations. All of who are stakeholders in this region, holding larger stakes than the USA.